From Hot Industries To Oligopoly Competition. The Development Path Of The Smart Lock Industry

Mar 03, 2020

Summarize the development history of the smart lock industry in the past few years. In fact, it can be compared with the development of the home appliance industry. Thereby, the development trend of the smart lock industry is more clearly predicted.


In the past 20 years of development, the home appliance industry has experienced two rounds of market speculation. Then there are two rounds of industry reshuffle, and finally the competition of oligarchs. The period from 2001 to 2009 was the stir-fry phase of the industry. Especially after the introduction of home appliances to the countryside policy, the home appliance industry's stir fry reached its peak. For example, the washing machine market ten years ago, because of the large-scale sales of fully automatic washing machines, the Little Swan ranked Top 5 was counterfeited. After these counterfeit brands flooded the market, they shared the market share of washing machines with Little Swan. Except for washing machines, refrigerators, color TVs and other categories, similar situations have occurred.


The current smart lock industry is similar to the background of the home appliance industry at the time. The development path of the industry brand pattern has hardly changed. Just because of the participation of e-commerce. Industry competition time has been shortened.

From 2016 to 2018, the smart lock industry has developed very fast, and it has basically doubled every year. This is obviously the stage of stir fry.

The market size of smart locks in 2016 was more than 3 million. More than 7 million in 2017. From 12 million in 2018. But this data comes from the supply chain side, that is, the data of manufacturing plants. So, how many smart locks actually enter consumers' homes?

In 2016, there were only over 400 brands of smart door locks, and by 2018 there were 3,000 brands. The market size is from 3 million to 12 million. The scale has increased fourfold; the number of brands has increased from more than 400 to more than 3,000. The number of brands has nearly doubled. The market share of each brand is uneven.


E-commerce data is the most intuitive. In recent years, e-commerce has maintained an increase of more than 50% each year. Therefore, the growth rate of genuine sales to consumers is basically unchanged. What has changed is the enthusiasm of the industry. This is the inherent reason for the heat and cold inside the smart lock industry. Over the past three years, the enthusiasm of various brands has been soaring. Seeing that the smart lock industry is about to break out, quickly remember to come in and share a cup. But after coming in, I found that there are no more than a few head brands.

The decline in the smart lock industry in 2019 was mainly due to three years of industry stir-ups from 2016 to 2018. With the advancement of standards and fierce price competition, those brands that come in casually are naturally eliminated. For dealers, they should think about what brand to follow. Whether to make fast money or continue to develop.


The first stage of stir frying is over. From 2019 to 2020, it will be the reshuffle phase of the smart lock industry, and the reshuffle time will not be too long. From the data of Double 11 in 2019, the online growth rate is still maintained at more than 70%, and the actual number of sales to consumers is still increasing year by year, which means that the market demand for smart locks is only increasing.

In fact, this round of shuffling has started since September 2018, and the manufacturing end should feel more obvious. After more than a year of industry reshuffle, this round of reshuffle will continue into the second half of next year, after which the entire industry will rise again, and the industry will enter the second round of stir fry.


After two rounds of stir-fry and reshuffle in the power industry, the rest are oligopoly markets such as Midea, Haier and Gree. These big brands will develop towards the labeling of market segments and crowds in the future. For example, Midea recently launched a Shiba Inu rice cooker that can only steam a bowl of rice. This product is a labeled young person, single person, and sold 470,000 in the first hour of launch. The rice cooker has also developed a low sugar rice cooker for special groups. It can be seen that when household appliances become increasingly saturated, everyone's competition is no longer price competition. The more and more refined the products, the more and more inclined to pay attention to who the user is and the brand where the user is, they can go further in the future.


After the first round of reshuffle in the smart lock industry is over, there will be a new wave of market speculation in the industry. Judging from the development of the industry, the process of this stir-fry also takes at least three years.

Starting from 2021, the smart lock industry is likely to enter an outbreak again. At this stage, excellent brands have established their market position. There will also be new brands discovering market opportunities and joining the competition.

However, the industry threshold for the second round of speculation is getting higher and higher, and it must have core competitiveness. Then enter the second round of shuffle, and finally enter the oligarch stage. Therefore, from the perspective of the development of the industry, the smart lock industry has at least 10 years to look forward to.